MLB Regular Season Predictions, Part I

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL EAST

New York Yankees (2009 Regular Season record = 103-59; 1^st place in AL East): the defending World Series champs are back, and they’re hungry for more (don’t think Derek Jeter, CC Sabathia and Co. are satisfied with their 2009 rings).  And, unfortunately for the rest of the division, the Bronx Bombers have actually gotten better since last year’s title run.  The addition of right-handed pitcher Javier Vasquez shores up a rotation that was shaky at best last season (New York’s new starting rotation: Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Vasquez, Andy Pettite and Phil Hughes – not bad, huh?)  And, while the Bombers’ above-average rotation isn’t as rock solid as Boston’s “run prevention” unit, I have a hunch that this year’s race will come down to run-production – something the Yankees have an awful lot of (see: Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, etc. etc.) The 2010 race will be a dandy, but once again, the boys in pinstripes will come out on top.

AL CENTRAL

Minnesota Twins (2009 Regular Season record = 87-76; 1^st place in AL Central): things are lookin’ pretty good in Minnesota, all things considered – the Twins have a new ballpark (goodbye Metrodome, hello Target field), Jim Pohlad just inked hometown hero Joe Mauer to an 8-year, $184 million contract extension and ESPN’s Buster Olney thinks that the Twins have the best line-up – top to bottom – in Major League Baseball.  Add that to a decent starting rotation (Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Carl Pavano and possibly Francisco Liriano) and you’ve got the recipe for a second consecutive AL Central title.  It took a 163^rd game to decide last years race (a contest between Minnesota and Detroit), and things won’t get any easier this year, especially without spectacular closer Joe Nathan (the Twins also can’t afford to sleep on Jake Peavy and the reinvigorated White Sox).  It’ll be a close one; but, with a boatload of talent, I still like Minnesota in 2010.

AL WEST

Seattle Mariners (2009 Regular Season record = 85-77; 3^rd place in AL West): this was a tough one – the Mariners, Rangers and Angels all have a legitimate shot at finishing atop the AL West standings.  With that said, it’s hard to bet against a rotation that includes 2009 Cy Young runner-up Felix Hernandez and 2008 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee.  The Mariners’ line-up isn’t too shabby, either (they’ve got Ken Griffey, Jr., Chone Figgins, Ichiro Suzuki and Franklin Gutierrez). Seattle might have surprised a lot of folks last year, but with L.A. losing a key component (I’m looking at you, John Lackey) of their 2009 roster, and with Texas seemingly unable to keep it going all season, the expectations for this 2010 Seattle squad are high (and, rightfully so). A host of off-season acquisitions have made the Mariners a very formidable team, and I expect them to finish as one of the better teams in the AL.  Let’s just hope Seattle can handle the self-proclaimed “Kanye West” of the MLB, Milton Bradley.

AL WILDCARD

Boston Red Sox (2009 Regular Season record = 95-67; 2^nd place in AL East): while it’s hard to argue against (probably) the best rotation in baseball – the Sox feature TWO legitimate number one starters in John Lackey and Josh Beckett – I question their run-scoring potential.  The loss of Jason Bay (.267, 36 HR, 119 RBI) was bad enough.  Add the inevitable decline of Big Papi, and the Red Sox’s lineup just got a lot less scary.  Sure, Boston has a ton of guys who can hit (Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Marco Scutaro, etc. etc.). But, I can’t help but feel that the Sox are a tad too imbalanced – something that might work against them as the division race unfolds.  Pitching is certainly nice (especially in the AL), but Boston needs some offensive firepower if and when their superb starters turn in less than phenomenal performances.  Right now, the quality of Boston’s offense is far too uncertain for me to tab them AL East winners.  But, the Sox are still good for a wild card berth – from there, it’s anyone’s game.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL EAST

Philadelphia Phillies (2009 Regular Season record = 93-69; 1^st place in NL East): this one was pretty easy.  The Phillies represented the NL in last season’s fall classic, and, with the addition of Cy Young winner Roy Halladay, I’d be surprised if the Fightin’ Phils didn’t make a repeat appearance (despite the loss of post-season phenom Cliff Lee).  The rest of the NL East, while in the process of re-tooling, still has a long way to go if it plans on catching Philadelphia.  The Phillies are frighteningly balanced – they have (arguably) the best starting rotation in the NL East, and unquestionably the most dangerous line-up in the division (who wants to face Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, etc. etc. in Citizen’s Bank ballpark?)  It won’t be a cakewalk (especially if Atlanta gets hot and New York gets healthy), but Halladay, Howard and Co. will lead the Phillies to a fourth-straight NL East crown in 2010.

NL CENTRAL

St. Louis Cardinals (2009 Regular Season record = 91-71; 1^st place in NL Central):  the Dodgers’ three-game sweep of St. Louis in last year’s National League Division Series was certainly a shock (for fans, “experts” AND players), but I can’t help but feel that the series was an aberration – the Cards are still one of the “teams to beat” in the NL.  St. Louis has two of the game’s premier pitchers (Chris Carpenter, last year’s Cy Young runner-up, and Adam Wainwright, who finished third in the 2009 Cy Young voting) and two of MLB’s top position players (Albert Pujols, arguably the best all-around player, and Matt Holliday, who, I think, will atone for last year’s costly post-season error by turning in a very strong 2010 season).  The Cardinals didn’t get much better in the off-season, but neither did NL Central contender Chicago, so there’s not much to worry about there if you’re a St. Louis fan.  Expect to see the Cards playing ball when the MLB’s second season rolls around.

NL WEST

Colorado Rockies (2009 Regular Season record = 92-70; 2^nd place in NL West): move over Los Angeles, there’s a new number one in the NL West.  The Rockies might not have LA’s “star power”, but the guys on this roster know how to get it done year in, and year out.  The Rockies have a solid, young pitching staff (Jorge De La Rosa, Jason Hammel and Ubaldo Jiminez) and a (potentially) high-powered offense anchored by veteran first baseman Todd Helton (and supplemented by superb shortstop Troy Tulowitzi and right fielder Brad Hawpe).  The Rockies seemed reinvigorated under skipper Jim Tracy last year, playing good baseball for much of the season.  Last year’s consistent play and offensive/defensive balance will give Colorado the edge in this year’s NL West race.

NL WILDCARD

San Francisco Giants (2009 Regular Season record = 88-74; 3^rd place in NL West): another difficult choice.  I’m giving San Francisco the nod over LA on the strength of the pitching of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain (I also see promise in 27-year-old Jonathan Sanchez; and, could this finally be the year that Barry Zito reemerges as a force?).  The Giants haven’t done much to shore up their anemic line-up (the reason I didn’t tab them NL West champs), but if San Francisco can muster even a little bit of run support for its pitching staff, it’ll be just fine (the Giants allowed just 611 runs against last season – tied for the fewest in the bigs). It will be a toss-up between LA and San Francisco for the final post-season spot when the 2010 campaign draws to a close – Tim Lincecum (probably) will be the difference-maker.