Get Real, Revolution: The Prospect of a Third War in Libya

Protesters in Libya burn Muammar Gaddafi in effigy.| From flickr user BRQ.

If any doubt remained that the unrest in Northern Africa would have lasting effects, the conflict in Libya has laid those doubts to rest over the past several weeks. Libyan rebels started protesting their leader, Muammar Gaddafi, and his iron-fisted rule as the revolution in Egypt began to wind down. Unlike his Egyptian and Tunisian counterparts, Gaddafi showed no signs of stepping down. Rather, he began openly attacking rebels. The United States and its allies utilized a policy of harsh words for a while, but it soon became clear that Gaddafi was not going to step down or stop attacking Libya’s citizens, so the US and NATO finally took action.

Some assert that Libya received US help because of its oil reserves. There’s probably some truth to this. According to Reuters, both the US and UN have issued statements clarifying that Libyan rebels are free to sell oil, despite the UN embargo and US sanctions on Libyan oil. As long as the rebels do not sell through Libya’s National Oil Corp., they will be free from sanctions. According to the US, this will help the rebels by providing them with much needed revenue. It should also be noted that it will help a lot of other people too – since the rebels took control of some Libyan oil fields, the price of oil has dropped, which will eventually translate into less pain at the pump for Americans.

Libyan oil may have been an important factor Gaddafi is probably the least sane of any of the authoritarian rulers who have recently seen their rule challenged. According to the New York Times, he has been using Libyan citizens as human shields, with hundreds of men, women and children keeping vigil at his compound – a compound which features a statue of a giant fist crushing an American fighter jet, no less. In a speech in late February, Gaddafi urged his supporters to “cleanse Libya house by house” of rebels. By the time a no-fly zone was established on March 17th, it had become clear that Gaddafi was not going to let rebels walk away without a fight. By the time the US got involved, it seemed that the international community had no choice but to step in to protect the rebels.

Whether or not it was necessary, the military action in Libya raises plenty of questions for the concerned observer of foreign policy. For once, the United States sent its troops out into the world with the approval of the United Nations, which is a step in the right direction. However, despite Obama’s promises that there would be no ground troops sent in to Libya, the US has committed members of the Navy, Marine Corps and CIA to the Libyan conflict. NATO is leading the charge on paper, and Britain and France were the most vocal proponents of the intervention. The numbers tell a different story. The United States is by far the largest contributor to NATO, with well over a million men and women serving in its military. The United Kingdom and France were both hovering around 200,000 members as of 2007. Together, the UK and France have less than half as many aircraft carriers as the US. The United States spends 4.6% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense funding, while France spends 2.6% and the UK spends 2.4% of their considerably smaller GDPs on defense.

Looking at those figures, it is hard to believe that the US will take the backseat role advocated by Obama. Now that a military commitment has been made, Obama and the international community will not be willing to let Gaddafi’s troops retain control of Libya, if only because it would be embarrassing for the largest military in the world to be frustrated by a force whose leader has a questionable grip on reality.  The United States has shown relative restraint so far, but Gaddafi’s forces show no signs of retreating. It is easy to look into the not-so-distant past and see the path we could be headed down. Though the humanitarian goal of the NATO operation in Libya is admirable and necessary, the thought of a third war in this economy, with many American servicemen and women already veterans of foreign wars, is extremely daunting. The United States’ involvement in the Libyan conflict may have officially cemented its role as a country that involves itself in the countries of all the other countries, dooming poor George Washington to spend eternity rolling in his grave.

About Annie White

Annie is a senior in CAS studying political science.

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