Finally, a sense of competition has entered the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
After a controversial second-place in the Iowa Caucus and a very declarative win in New Hampshire earlier this month, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney looked poised to cement his perennial frontrunner status and virtually lock up the nomination in the Palmetto State. Instead, Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, emerged victorious on Saturday night.
With 100% of the precincts reporting by night’s end, Mr. Gingrich secured 41% of the vote to Mr. Romney’s 27%. Coming in third was former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum with 17%, followed by Congressman Ron Paul with 13%.
The poll results ensure what seemed almost unattainable only last week–a drawn-out, highly competitive race over the next 4-plus months. With Mr. Gingrich now finally the major player many believed he always would be–he’s claimed $1 million have been donated to his campaign in the first 24 hours since his SC victory–heat is shifting off of Mr. Romney, even if only temporarily.
Fresh off his resounding victory, Mr. Gingrich is, of course, seen as a potential frontrunner to the other candidates, who have been not at all hesitant to voice their criticisms. Mr. Romney, for one, has consistently accused the former Speaker of being a lobbyist and demanding that he release his consulting contracts related to work with Freddie Mac, an association Mr. Gingrich refutes. On a more personal level, the former governor has said this week of Mr. Gingrich that “he is highly erratic and does not suggest a stable, thoughtful course.”
Ahead of January 31st’s pivotal Florida primary, Mr. Gingrich has come out swinging, claiming his campaign is “going to make the Establishment very uncomfortable.” The Establishment is indeed uncomfortable, and funds will surely be flowing into Mr. Romney’s PACs to return him to the coveted land of the frontrunner.
Perhaps the most important thing to take away from South Carolina’s primary is the now sudden lack of certainty. In a race long dominated by Mr. Romney, the former Bain CEO now finds himself without firm footing; no longer may he be able to rest upon the assumption that his rivals will split opposing votes into nonthreatening bunches. Without a doubt, after electing three different winners in three primaries thus far, it is obvious that Republicans are in no hurry whatsoever to confirm a nominee.
Of course, that is not to say that Mr. Romney should not still be considered the overall favorite, for he certainly is. He is on the ballot in every state, a luxury whose comforts Mr. Gingrich doesn’t enjoy, and even while he was falling behind in South Carolina on Saturday, Mr. Romney was locking up tens of thousands of early votes for the Florida primary. As the calendar turns to February in a couple weeks’ time, things look even better for the former Massachusetts governor–Nevada and Michigan will weigh in with their own primaries, states which happen to be the only ones Mr. Romney won back in his failed 2008 presidential bid.
However, all of these are theoretical and hypothetical advantages and will matter little if a repeat of South Carolina occurs, an idea not at all far-fetched. Mr. Romney could well trounce the competition in Florida and virtually seal the nomination by February, but, in the meantime, at least Mr. Gingrich, with his aggressive attitude and anti-Washington stance, has finally made things interesting.
