For last Sunday’s issue, I examined the recent trend in award shows toward the unexciting and traditional and away from the groundbreaking and challenging. This year’s Oscar nominations took a step toward bucking that trend–even the less exciting nominees are still quality movies. Thanks to the multitude of precursor award shows, and to a general sense of the way the Academy votes, these are my picks for who the winners will be next Sunday night–whether they are all worthy is a different question entirely.
Best Picture: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
The Pick: Argo
Over the course of the last several months, a Best Picture win has been all but assured for The Master, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Lincoln, and Argo again, roughly in that order. When Affleck’s name wasn’t called for Best Director when the nominations were announced, it seemed like Lincoln would coast to a victory (the last movie to take Best Picture without also winning Best Director was 1989’s Driving Miss Daisy). Since then, there’s been the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, the DGA awards, and the PGA awards, and in all, Argo has been the big winner. So while this is a somewhat risky pick, it can still be said with a good deal of confidence that Argo will take home the night’s biggest prize. The Academy should be lauded this year for choosing nine very good films, many of which could have taken home this award in a different year.
Best Director: Michael Haneke: Amour, Benh Zeitlin: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Ang Lee: Life of Pi, Steven Spielberg: Lincoln, David O. Russell: Silver Linings Playbook
The Pick: Steven Spielberg
The award at one point seemed a lock for Kathryn Bigelow or Ben Affleck for their tight, visceral, exceptionally well-directed films, but the snubs of the two leave one clear winner standing. For Haneke and Zeitlin, the award is simply the nomination itself; as for Lee and Russell, their films each have their fair share of fans but both have been somewhat divisive amongst the people that vote on these sort of things. That leaves only Spielberg standing with Lincoln, a movie that’s a few steps outside the director’s standard fare. It has none of the adventure, big action sequences, or childlike wonderment of much of the director’s filmography, but is remarkable for its meticulousness and its restraint and while political, is well-liked by almost everyone. The award would be Spielberg’s third for Best Director.
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper: Silver Linings Playbook, Daniel Day-Lewis: Lincoln, Hugh Jackman: Les Miserables, Joaquin Phoenix: The Master, Denzel Washington: Flight
The Pick: Daniel Day-Lewis
Day-Lewis probably won this award the second he signed his contract. As Lincoln he is at once countrified yet fiercely intelligent, charming but weary. It’s just too much for the Academy to pass up one of our greatest actors playing one of our greatest presidents, but special kudos to Joaquin Phoenix for the most ferociously brave and memorable performances of the year.
Best Actress: Jessica Chastain: Zero Dark Thirty, Jennifer Lawrence: Silver Linings Playbook, Emmanuelle Riva: Amour, Quevenzhane Wallis: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Naomi Watts: The Impossible
The Pick: Jennifer Lawrence
This category has always been a two-horse race between Lawrence and Chastain for their emotional, powerful and empowering roles as women in charge. Lawrence gets to show a bit more depth in a movie that is essentially an acting showcase, and there’s a general sense that she could be the big actress of this generation. The head scratcher here is leaving out Rachel Weisz for Deep Blue Sea and Michelle Williams for Take This Waltz in favor of Watts and Wallis.
Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin: Argo, Robert De Niro: Silver Linings Playbook, Philip Seymour Hoffman: The Master, Tommy Lee Jones: Lincoln, Christoph Waltz: Django Unchained
The Pick: Tommy Lee Jones
Jones took home the SAG Award from this category, voted on solely by fellow actors. His performance as Thaddeus Stevens received special recognition in most reviews when Lincoln debuted, and the highly respected actor hasn’t taken home an award since 1993 for The Fugitive. De Niro also has an outside chance of winning, based solely on the Academy rewarding him for finally appearing in a respectable movie for the first time in years.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams: The Master, Sally Field: Lincoln, Anne Hathaway: Les Miserables, Helen Hunt: The Sessions, Jacki Weaver: Silver Linings Playbook
The Pick: Anne Hathaway
Hathaway singing “I Dreamed a Dream” live, in one unbroken take, bursting out in sobs and struggling to complete the song, was one of the most powerful images in film in 2012. It was all that was needed to wrap up this category, as well as the litany of precursor awards that Hathaway has already taken home. The only suspense here is how much her undoubtedly tear-filled speech will piss off the internet.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook
The Pick: Argo
Argo won the award for this category from the Writer’s Guild of America, and has been cleaning up at many of the smaller preliminary shows. Odds are, if the movie takes Best Picture, which I believe it will, this one will be a no-brainer. Though none of these, aside from maybe Beasts of the Southern Wild, is a very controversial pick, it’s interesting that this year’s nominees come from a stage play, a magazine article, two novels, and a non-fiction book.
Best Original Screenplay: Amour, Django Unchained, Flight, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty
The Pick: Django Unchained
Right away, we can write off Moonrise Kingdom and Flight for being too minor and Amour for being French (foreign films almost never win writing awards). That leaves Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty, both highly divisive amongst the morally righteous Academy for their controversial portrayals of violence and politics. At this point, Tarantino might be a bit more respected, and his distinct brand is what makes Django the movie that it is.
