Mubarak’s Day of Departure?

If you haven’t been paying attention to Egypt like we told you to, now would be a good time to start. Events came to a head this week as it became clear that protesters were not going to pack up and go home without some changes being made in the government. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (who has been leader for thirty years without a legitimate election being held) agreed not to run for re-election in this September’s elections. This plan, however, did little to answer the demands of protesters. The most recent news from Egypt is that there is a tentative plan for Mubarak to leave office immediately and transfer power to a provisional government headed by newly minted Vice-President Omar Suleiman. Demonstrators celebrated this plan (not yet agreed to by Mubarak) by staging their biggest demonstration yet in celebration of Mubarak’s anticipated Day of Departure.

News of the new plan comes after a week and a half of large scale protests from Egyptian citizens, inspired by the successful Tunisian demonstrations early last month.  Starting on January 25^th, the protests in Egypt quickly increased in size and gained international attention. This week, the demonstrations turned violent when pro-government protesters joined the mix and began attacking anti-government protesters and journalists – including such well-known faces as Anderson Cooper and Christiane Amanpour. Many believe that the pro-government protesters are nothing more than Mubarak’s secret police in plainclothes; there are reports that police IDs have been found on some of those protesters. Far from discouraging the anti-government protesters, this violence seemed to solidify the point that Egypt’s government has become unacceptably authoritarian.

The increasingly volatile situation in Egypt has likely played a large part in the turnaround from the international community this week. When the protests started, the United States and European Union were presenting a united front of conditional support for the Mubarak government. Egypt is a very important military ally for the United States in the Middle East, providing stability to an often-unstable region and standing with America in support of Israel. For this reason, it is in the United States’ interest to support a government that it knows will cooperate. Until the middle of this week, Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton and most Republican leaders had stood together in calling for government reform but not Mubarak’s resignation. Republican Congressman Thaddeus McCotter went so far as to accuse the protesters of being Islamic extremists in disguise. By Friday, however, Obama and the European Union had changed their stances and were calling for Mubarak’s immediate resignation and cessation of power to a transitional government. This change in policy better reflected the wishes of the protesters, and of many US citizens. Since the start of protests in Egypt, there have been demonstrations of support in the United States, including a solidarity march from Cambridge to Boston last weekend.

The United States has been gripped by the events in Egypt, perhaps no group more than Americans with family and history in Egypt. BU student Renée Selim was born in America but both of her parents are from Egypt, and she has family there now. Selim and her family are Christian, and she said that tensions between Muslims and Christians have “been a big deal in the last couple of years,” especially since recent bombings during Christmas. Selim, whose family is safe in the suburbs of Cairo, stresses change as the most desirable outcome of the unrest. Change in the sense that “the government would address all the issues that citizens are bringing up, like poverty.” Selim is also hoping for a non-corrupt government and for “less persecution of Christians in Egypt.”

It seems like Selim’s hopes for change might soon be answered. Mubarak is still unwilling to step down from power, but with protesters knocking on the palace door and evaporating support abroad, he may soon have no choice. Omar Suleiman, the presumptive head of the possible new government, might not be enough of a change for the protesters in Egypt. He has long been an important member of Mubarak’s government. This would make him a safe candidate from the point of view of the United States and Egypt’s other allies, but could mean that he will be unwilling to make substantive changes to government. Whatever happens, it is certain that Egypt will be transitioning and reforming for some time to come, long after the next big news story has diverted the attention of the world.